![]() ![]() can summon a quicker turn of foot, we’d have an upset brewing. If Tiz the Law regresses, and a maturing Honor A. Tiz the Law is liable to put the race away before Honor A. My only hesitation about thinking he’ll beat Tiz the Law is that the favorite has a more stunning change of gear. is likely sitting on the best race of his career so far. Smith has been astride his pre-Derby works, so Honor A. P.’s sharpness going into the race (i.e., in his mind, if Mike’s not up, it’s not serious). Also, remember that Mike Smith wasn’t able to ride him in works leading up to the Shared Belief, thanks to the COVID restrictions, and there was a “shared belief” that absence had affected Honor A. Not only is 1 1/16 miles shorter than ideal, but it was a small field with a controlled pace by Thousand Words – in other words, just the kind of set-up calculated to put Honor A. His upset loss in the Shared Belief last out does not concern me at all, for reasons beyond the fact that it was clearly a tune-up. As proven in his Santa Anita Derby (G1) victory, the son of Honor Code and Hollywood Story can unleash a strong, sustained move. (5-1) makes the most logical case as the alternative. The ChallengersĪside from analyzing the favorite, of course, we have to probe for evidence that any of his challengers could be poised to move forward substantially enough to topple him. There’s no hint that he’s liable to regress, though, and the likeliest outcome is that the son of blueblood Constitution upholds the rule of law again. The one potential issue is a quicker turnaround, relatively speaking, than typical for him. Finally, it was sloppy that day too, which might not have mattered, but the sunny forecast suggests he won’t have to re-litigate that matter yet. Even with the defections of a couple of pace factors from the Derby, they won’t be dawdling through splits of :49.92 and 1:14.83. Another factor in the Kentucky Jockey Club that might have taken him out of rhythm was a crawling pace. On Saturday, he’ll be clear throughout from post 17. Moreover, he’s also avoiding the conditions that contributed to his only loss.Īlthough that reverse came right here at Churchill Downs, in last fall’s Kentucky Jockey Club (G2), also at 3-5, Tiz the Law was bottled up on the inside. Indeed, Tiz the Law projects exactly the trip he wants, hovering menacingly from an outside stalking spot before delivering the coup de grace, as in his conquests of the Florida Derby (G1), Belmont (G1), and Travers (G1). But the 146th Kentucky Derby (G1) figures to set up well for him. When evaluating an odds-on favorite like #17 TIZ THE LAW (3-5), I try to imagine scenarios that could prevent him from delivering his best effort.
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